Ahead of next week’s 2026 UN climate summit (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye, the linkages between local level action, urban wellbeing, equity and justice, and the speed and success at which global climate ambition can be met have never been clearer.
Over the past year, global energy markets have been severely disrupted by the war in Iran, driving up oil and gas as well as food prices worldwide. This stark reminder of the systemic vulnerabilities inherent in fossil-fuel-driven economies is reflected in a renewed focus on energy expected at COP31, which however fails to mention “fossil fuels” in the leaders summit programme. At the same time, ecological pressures are compounding, and extreme weather events have soared from Europe to South Asia. These impacts have been felt particularly acutely in urban environments, which have witnessed increasing social discontent and protest movements, eroding infrastructure and service delivery, and tragic loss of human life. Against this backdrop, COP31 requires a meaningful shift from negotiations to implementation, in which the ability for cities and subnational governments to elevate their voice and needs with a strong justice lens will be critical.
More than 70% of climate solutions fall under local and regional governments’ jurisdictions, and cities and regions are advancing ambitious mitigation and adaptation measures, with multiple co-benefits for health, resilience, and equity. Local leadership is often outperforming national commitments, with for example 75% of megacities in the C40 network reducing per capita greenhouse gas emissions more quickly than their national governments, and average per capita emissions across the network falling by 7.5% from 2015 to 2024. Cities feature increasingly prominently in national climate plans, with 80 per cent of the 142 submitted NDCs 3.0 including well-developed urban content, up from just 49 per cent in NDC 2.0, demonstrating that cities are increasingly being seen as implementation actors. Their participation in the UNFCCC process however, as in other Multilateral Environmental Agreements, still remains limited, constrained by limited upstream access to negotiations, complex procedural requirements, and inadequate access to climate finance.
The climate emergency requires immediate real-world action by cities
With the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) recently concluding that exceeding the 1.5°C global warming limit is now unavoidable, a period of “climate overshoot” will create particular challenges for cities and human settlements, exacerbating risks to infrastructure, human health, and economies. Subnational governments are vital partners to national governments, yet they frequently lack the frameworks and resources needed to act. Without structural changes, urban conditions will worsen, with the most precarious residents being affected first and most profoundly. With a projected 986 million increase in global city dwellers by 2050, and many of the fastest-growing settlements being smaller cities, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and Central and Southern Asia, questions of equity and justice within global frameworks are paramount. These smaller cities often lack the planning capacity and resources to manage their growth sustainably and require critical support for basic services, land-use management, in addition to climate policies that support local adaptation and mitigation.
As the Local Governments and Municipal Authorities Constituency (LGMA) makes it clear in its position statement, The Paris Agreement will only be delivered through the engagement of all levels of government, estimating that local, regional and subnational governments implement between 70% and 80% of the actions needed to achieve its goals. The LGMA has put forward six clear demands ahead of COP31 that reflect critical issues where local action is key for delivery, from just energy transitions to multilevel governance.
Cities are indeed where global climate goals are translated into real-world action.
Across adaptation, loss and damage, and just transition agendas for example, cities hold key responsibilities for land-use planning, infrastructure, transportation, housing, water and sanitation, emergency response, social services, and economic transformation, making them essential actors in implementing national climate commitments. Local governments are often the first responders to climate impacts and bear much of the cost of adaptation and recovery, yet they face major barriers to accessing international climate finance and decision-making processes. More direct access to funding, and formal representation of local and subnational governments in climate mechanisms would contribute to a shift towards more responsive, effective and equitable climate policies.
Bridging the gap between national ambition and local delivery
The importance of bridging the gap between national ambition and local delivery can be crystalised through the COP31 Türkiye Presidency Agenda desire to set a new goal of global electrification rate of 35% by 2035. Energy is a critical issue in cities, whether shifting transport systems away from polluting vehicles, which still relies on fossil fuels for 95% of its energy, or supporting the 1.1 billion people living in informal settlements, who experience persistent structural barriers to accessing essential services, including electricity. Many cities are accelerating the shift toward building decarbonisation and electrified mass transit for example, taking the lead on rebuilding obsolete infrastructure to absorb a massive influx of energy demand, yet they have little control over how electricity is generated or how national grids are funded.
Research has additionally shown that excluding electricity decarbonisation, 37% of urban emissions-reduction potential can only be realised through climate action coordinated across different levels of government. Initiatives such as the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships for Climate Action (CHAMP) are the reflection of this growing awareness. This global initiative launched at COP28 now counts 80 national and EU endorsers, seeking to enhance cooperation between national and subnational governments in climate planning, finance, implementation, and monitoring. The delivery capacity of cities and subnational governments however remains largely excluded from the structures of the multilateral process.
Ultimately, while national governments establish climate targets, their execution often lies at the local level, and in an increasingly turbulent future, cities and regions will continue to be the battlegrounds where these global commitments are either won or lost.
Written by Lucas Snaije, IHS Research Officer
- Related content
